Predicting Chelsea’s Most Likely Coaching Change

Chelsea has sacked 15 managers since 2003, the most recent being Potter, dismissed in April 2023 after just seven months in charge. With this managerial turnover rate, current head coach Pochettino may join the dismissal list before the season ends.

According to journalist Matt Law, Chelsea head coach Mauricio Pochettino is facing mounting pressure, though sources say the club plans to retain him until the season’s end. However, Pochettino must improve results by the new year, or he could still face the sack, as Chelsea has a history of abruptly changing managers.

No Surprise Here; Chelsea Is Most Likely to Make a Change

When Potter was hired from Brighton, he was seen as an innovative, long-term replacement for Tuchel, who was fired abruptly after barely 24 hours. However, Potter lasted less than seven months as Chelsea manager, winning 12 of 31 games before being sacked – the second coach dismissed since Todd Boehly took over ownership from Roman Abramovich.

Here is a table comparing the records of Mauricio Pochettino and Graham Potter as Chelsea managers:

The conclusion is that Chelsea has fared slightly better under Pochettino than Potter, but meeting that low bar should not be the aim. Chelsea sits 11th in the table with 31 points, ahead of League leaders Liverpool, who have 51 points after 23 matchdays.

Chelsea’s best displays came in the first three months under Potter, including home draws against Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City. Their worst performances – away losses to Newcastle, Manchester United, Middlesbrough and Liverpool, plus a home defeat to Wolves – have all come in the last three months.

This downward trajectory indicates deterioration in form rather than improvement under both managers.

AI Predictions on a New Chelsea Coach

Bookmakers are offering odds on who could replace Mauricio Pochettino if Chelsea decides to part ways with their 51-year-old manager. Calls are growing louder for Pochettino’s dismissal after Chelsea dropped into the Premier League’s bottom half following a 4-2 home defeat to Wolves. Even Thiago Silva’s wife has called for a change, with Pochettino seemingly unable to maximize the potential of Chelsea’s over £1 billion squad. Here are the top potential replacements being discussed for owner Todd Boehly to consider if Pochettino gets sacked:

José Mourinho

Jose Mourinho has declared his desire to return to the Premier League, though he has targeted the Manchester United job rather than his former club Chelsea. However, the “Special One” remains beloved by Chelsea fans, and if he could recapture the magic from his first two successful spells for a third stint, it would be a warm homecoming.

The currently unemployed Mourinho, 61, was fired by Roma last month. But his authoritarian approach could provide much-needed leadership for Chelsea’s young squad. Bookmakers are offering 4/1 odds of Mourinho replacing Pochettino.

Xavi

Barcelona icon Xavi announced he will leave the club after this season, wrapping up a successful spell as manager. Despite sitting seven points behind La Liga leaders Real Madrid, Xavi’s coach stats indicate his tenure will be remembered positively.

Xavi steered Barcelona to last season’s league title amid financial turmoil, playing an attacking style the Chelsea board would likely demand from a Pochettino replacement. Bookmakers are offering 8/1 odds on former midfield maestro Xavi Hernandez.

Hans-Dieter “Hansi” Flick

Hansi Flick entered the German job with a strong reputation after leading Bayern Munich to a treble in 2019/20. However, he departed after a disappointing tenure that damaged his formerly stellar stock.

During his Bayern stint, Flick remarkably won six trophies in 2020 – a success Chelsea would hope he could replicate if hired to replace Pochettino. The currently available German tactician would also be an easier hire than other candidates since he is unattached.

Does Changing Coach in Football Have an Effect on Betting and Fans?

Switching managers can impact betting lines and fan expectations in football. Research shows teams often see a short-term boost after firing their boss, but in the long term, the effect fades, and they fare no better than clubs that stuck it out.

For supporters, managerial stability breeds team identity and allows long-term projects to bear fruit – see Klopp’s Liverpool or Guardiola’s Man City. The data backs this up: while sacked managers might not be getting the most out of the squad, their replacements mostly increase running stats rather than fundamentally changing the style of play.

Some interim bounce is expected, but betting markets and the fanbase have good reason to lose patience with clubs caught in a hire-fire cycle. Consistency in the dugout pays off more often than not. So, while an initial boost is likely if Pochettino gets replaced, people shouldn’t expect overnight transformation.

It’s important to note that the Blues have shown signs of life in cup competitions, qualifying for the Carabao Cup final against Liverpool later this month. According to the best EFL Cup betting sites, Chelsea has 3.84 odds to triumph over the Reds on February 25th. They also earned an impressive 3-1 away win over Aston Villa in the FA Cup.

The strategy of frequently changing managers has long been a hallmark of Chelsea’s philosophy under owner Roman Abramovich, much like at Real Madrid. Underperforming coaches get replaced, and their successors typically enjoy a short boost in results driven by fear of suffering the same fate.

Chelsea’s 2011-12 Champions League winning campaign illustrates this cycle. Andre Villas-Boas struggled as manager and was sacked in March 2012. It made Abramovich appoint his Assistant, Roberto Di Matteo, to take over on an interim basis. Soon after being appointed manager, Di Matteo brought in former Chelsea midfielder Eddie Newton as his assistant coach and promptly led the Blues on a trophy run – triumphing in the FA Cup and the club’s first-ever Champions League title. But despite this success, Di Matteo only lasted eight months before getting axed after a disappointing Champions League loss to Juventus.

The quick trigger fingers of Abramovich have been controversial but ultimately underpinned periods of Chelsea glory. Incoming managers know they must deliver instant results to survive at Stamford Bridge.

Patience with Pochettino Is the Best Long-Term Approach

While other big names like Xabi Alonso, Julian Nagelsmann, Roberto De Zerbi, and Arne Slot continue to be bandied about, Chelsea’s best route back to stability may simply be sticking with Pochettino for the remainder of the season.

However, if Chelsea’s poor Premier League form persists and Pochettino cannot lift them out of the bottom half, calls for yet another managerial casualty will only intensify.